The conflict in Iran is raising the “wall of worry” for the stock market, adding another concern for Americans already stressed about the impacts of artificial intelligence, job security and tariff policy.
Oil and gas prices surged early on Monday, as did gold. The S&P 500 SPX-0.70% fell more than 1% when the market opened, then recovered, ending the day in positive territory. By Tuesday morning, S&P 500 futures were down again as concerns about a war weighed on sentiment.
What feels like endless instability to many people has eroded sentiment. Consumer confidence, which fell at the start of 2026, remains “well below the four-year peak achieved in November 2024,” according to the Conference Board.
Financial advisers told MarketWatch that people may be wondering how to best manage their money amid the uncertainty, and for many consumers, the answer is to stick with their long-term plans, and not do anything drastic.
“Do not let geopolitical fear derail sound portfolio or household decisions,” said Jon Ulin, a financial planner at Ulin & Co. Wealth Management, noting “uncertainty is not a reason to freeze life” or “push you into aggressive spending” that you cannot afford.
Some see potential opportunities. “I’m holding some dry powder to try to buy at the bottom if there is an opportunity,” said Josh Kinser, an individual investor in Texas. He said while he isn’t changing his long-term strategies, “I’m mainly looking to see if just overall sentiment and fear causes some drops or sales in companies I believe in to add to some longer-term strategies.”
Even as people broadly let their existing financial strategies play out, planners said there may be opportunities for those keeping a close eye on markets to optimize for short-term volatility.
Consider Roth conversions if there’s a big market dip.
Robert Jeter, a financial planner and founder of Back Bay Financial Planning & Investments, said while he generally recommends waiting until the end of the year when your tax situation is more certain to do Roth conversions (paying the taxes to transfer funds from a traditional account to a Roth account, where they can grow tax-free), it’s also true that “converting when the market is down allows you to move more shares to the Roth at the same tax costs.”
The markets rebounded by late Monday, but, for instance, were they to drop 20%, he said, “I’d go ahead and execute at least 80% of the planned amount to get the shares moved over to your Roth. The additional shares moved in a big enough correction might be enough to cover your tax cost.” (The stock market has been trading at high levels recently and is far from a 20% decline.)
Get ‘extra’ cash ready for opportunities to optimize your portfolio. Follow your plan.
Scott Bishop, a financial planner with Presidio Wealth Partners, said that for years he has suggested people with stable income keep six months of fixed expenses in an easily accessible account for emergencies, and for people whose jobs are not stable to keep 12 months’ worth. If, on top of these reserves, “you have cash on the sidelines, you may want to consider this a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity to add to your portfolio,” if the market falls, he said.
“I always tell people to have a plan on what to do before a market sell-off event” so they are “executing a plan, not reacting,” Bishop added. One “smart way” to do this would be to use “new cash to rebalance your portfolio more aligned with your target allocation.”
If you want to take a bit more risk, “now could be a good time to start a position” in areas you see opportunities that have sold off — for instance some of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks MAGS-0.38%, or bitcoin BTCUSD-1.02%. On the other hand, if volatility is keeping you up at night, “You can also rebalance to be a little more defensive — but do not go to cash,” Bishop said. An analyst note from JPMorgan Chase
JPM+1.02% said the current conflict “should ultimately be an opportunity to add” if an investor has a time horizon longer than weeks. Gold GC00-3.40% — often seen as a safe asset — rose Monday following the strike on Iran, but “I don’t use safety and investing in the same sentence,” said Larry Luxenberg, a financial planner and founder of Lexington Avenue Capital Management. All investments come with “varying degrees of risk,” and “I’ll go with a diversified stock portfolio almost all the time despite the risks of a big downturn at any time,” he said.
Rather than making “narrow bets,” said Ulin, “The recent attack on Iran should be a wake-up call to open your statements, see how your portfolio has performed year to date and make any needed adjustments.”
Don’t freeze your life, but but pause on these big-ticket purchases.
“When geopolitical tensions spike, some risk-averse investors feel a reflex to act immediately,” even on purchases that might be unaffordable or speculative investments, said Ulin.
However, “a pause makes sense when the decision leans on leverage, timing, or fragile assumptions.” Some examples: Stretching for a higher home price based on quick appreciation, using a large adjustable mortgage to fund renovations, buying a vacation or rental property, or financing extra vehicles that strain cash flow.
On the other hand, a household that has already saved for a home purchase or a new car is not speculating. “If income is stable, reserves are solid, and the purchase fits your budget, global tensions alone are rarely a reason to stop,” he said. “Uncertainty is not a reason to freeze life.”
For retired Social Security benefits recipients, checks could increase by an estimated $51 in January, rising from $1,968 to $2,019.
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